Calculators / Expected value
Expected value calculator
The price only tells you what the bookmaker thinks. Plug in your own probability estimate and see whether the bet is worth making, in dollars.
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Market implied probability
Your edge
Fair odds, your probability
Expected value
EV per $1 staked
Status
How it works
Expected value is your probability of winning times the profit if you win, minus your probability of losing times the stake you lose. It answers "on average, what does this bet make me", not what happens on any single try.
Your edge is your probability estimate minus the market’s implied probability. Positive edge at a price you can actually get is the entire game. Everything else is bankroll management.
Worked example
| Odds | 2.50 (+150) |
| Market implied probability | 40.0% |
| Your probability | 45.0% |
| Edge | +5.0% |
| Fair odds, your probability | 2.22 |
| EV on a $50 stake | $6.25 |